Balance of power: Democrats sweep favourite at 61%

Democratic sweep leads

A Democratic sweep is the leading outcome in Kalshi’s 2026 midterm congressional balance-of-power market, at 61%, according to defirate.com. The figures were reported as of Oct 12, 2026 · 3:54 AM ET.

The next outcome is a Democratic House paired with a Republican Senate, at 30%. That puts the split-control scenario 31 percentage points behind a Democratic sweep.

Comparing the outcomes

A Republican sweep stands at 11%, according to the supplied summary. Among the three listed outcomes, traders therefore assign the highest probability to Democrats controlling both chambers and the lowest to Republicans doing so.

The reported figures total 102%. The supplied material does not explain that total or provide pricing history, so the snapshot does not establish whether any outcome has recently gained or lost ground.

What it means for prediction markets

• Clear leader, not a certainty: The 61% Democratic-sweep figure makes it the favourite among the listed outcomes, rather than a settled result.
• Split control remains significant: The 30% reading for a Democratic House and Republican Senate is the nearest listed alternative.
• Snapshot limits matter: With the figures totaling 102% and no historical comparison supplied, readers should distinguish the reported market ranking from a normalized probability distribution or a trend.