Infiniti Intelligence Hourly Briefing — Oct 11, 2026 · 5:54 PM ET

U.S. election trading on Kalshi and Polymarket has approached $2 billion in 2026, while Kalshi is looking toward a substantially larger presidential-election market in 2028. According to RotoWire, Kalshi Politics Head of Growth Ben Freeman said on a Tuesday media call that trading on the platform’s 2028 presidential election markets could reach $10 billion or more, supported partly by increasing hedging activity from hedge funds and financial institutions.

Election volumes accelerate

Aldrin Research data cited by RotoWire put Kalshi’s election trading at $1.31 billion across 1,322 single markets since the start of 2026. Polymarket’s U.S. and International platforms recorded $632.4 million across 47 single markets covering U.S. elections, although the available Polymarket data begin in April. Those figures exclude combination trades containing election legs, so they do not represent the full election-linked total.

Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour said election volume on the platform had grown 6 times faster than football volume this year compared with last year. He has identified Kalshi’s 2024 victory against the CFTC—which enabled nationwide legal election trading—as the company’s pivotal breakthrough, rather than its January of 2025 self-certification for Super Bowl 59 trading, according to RotoWire.

More visibility into trading and settlement

Kalshi executives also outlined tools for the midterms: real-time activity feeds showing trade sizes and frequency, historical Brier Scores intended to communicate forecast accuracy, and labels identifying markets with lower volume or fewer participants. A Midterms Hub combines Kalshi forecasts with AP live vote counts, polling averages, FEC fundraising data and campaign news. Kalshi said Brier Scores could expand to other markets, including sports, after the election.

On integrity controls, RotoWire reported that Kalshi requires identifying information, including names and social security numbers, and restricts relevant trading by candidates, congressional staff, campaign employees, media decision desks and election officials. The company has fined and suspended four congressional candidates this year and said foreign accounts account for less than 1% of its U.S. election trades. Its surveillance discussion included a $1.25 million trade in a Los Angeles mayoral race, after which the market corrected within nine seconds.

Settlement has a separate threshold: at least four of eight major news organizations, including the AP, must call a race without disagreement. If legal challenges leave a race too close to call, the market remains open until the winner is officially sworn in, according to RotoWire.

Research adds context to election prices

RotoWire also highlighted Eric Zitzewitz’s October 2026 NBER working paper, which examines election markets spanning 1880 to 2025 and finds no systematic long-run partisan or demographic bias. It does find that longshots generally trade too high and favorites too low, alongside about 1.4 points of overpricing for left-leaning outcomes in short-term polling-average markets. The paper is preliminary and not peer-reviewed; its Kalshi sample is small, most general-election contracts are excluded from the demographic analysis, and its average-bias tests do not establish whether individual elections experienced manipulation. A revision after the 2026 midterms is expected to add Polymarket.

What it means for prediction markets

• The $10 billion figure is a projection, not recorded volume. Kalshi’s outlook partly depends on further institutional participation in election hedging.
• Volume comparisons need qualification. Kalshi’s figures start in January, Polymarket’s available data start in April, and both totals exclude election-linked combination trades.
• Liquidity and settlement rules matter alongside prices. The new labels provide context for potential volatility, while disputed races can remain unresolved until a winner takes office.
• No average partisan bias does not mean perfect pricing. The preliminary research identifies favorite-longshot distortions and does not rule out manipulation in a particular contest.

Philadelphia’s advantage narrows

Philadelphia’s London loss was followed by a 15-percentage-point decline in its NFC East title probability to 36–38% on Kalshi and Polymarket, according to the supplied Oct 11, 2026 update. Dallas gained 9 points to the same 36–38% range, leaving the rivals level in the reported pricing.

The Giants also gained 7 points, although the supplied summary cuts off before giving their resulting probability. That leaves the size of New York’s remaining gap to the leaders unspecified.

NFC North lead requires a timing caveat

The update’s headline also reports that the Vikings have moved into the NFC North lead, but it provides no Minnesota price. The accompanying reporting from iPredicta.co describes Detroit as the division favourite, with Green Bay, Chicago and Minnesota behind it—a material difference that the supplied data do not resolve.

There is a similar, smaller discrepancy in the NFC East. According to iPredicta.co, Philadelphia remained slightly ahead of Dallas. Its listed market reading was taken on 11 October 2026 at 14:22 UTC, while the supplied update was published at 5:54 PM ET. The readings should therefore not be presented as a single, synchronized snapshot.

Reading the market data

According to iPredicta.co, its reported changes measure movements in the average of the two venues’ prices since 4 October 2026. At the 11 October reading, Polymarket’s NFC East contracts summed to 101.1%, with $285,048 traded over the market’s lifetime. The NFC North contracts summed to 101.5%, with lifetime trading of $94,883.

Those totals provide context, not confirmation of the later leadership changes. Without the underlying updated contract prices, the supplied material supports the reported Eagles–Cowboys convergence but does not establish the Vikings’ margin over their NFC North rivals.

What it means for prediction markets

• The NFC East repricing is substantial: Philadelphia’s reported 15-point decline and Dallas’s 9-point gain put both teams in the 36–38% range.
• Minnesota’s lead is not fully documented: The headline reports the change, but the accompanying source still names Detroit as favourite and supplies no updated Vikings probability.
• Timestamps and price construction matter: Cross-venue ranges, averaged changes and contract totals above 100% should not be treated as one exact, executable probability.
• The Giants’ move is incomplete: A 7-point increase is reported, but their new price is missing from the supplied summary.

San Francisco holds a narrow lead

San Francisco led Seattle 14-13 at Lumen Field late in the second quarter, according to the supplied game summary. The update, published Oct 11, 2026 at 5:54 PM ET, put the pregame underdog ahead as halftime approached.

Christian McCaffrey scored a touchdown following a fumble recovery. That sequence left the 49ers in front despite entering the game with a market-implied win probability of approximately 39-41%.

Pregame expectations meet the live score

The lead ran counter to the pregame market’s preference for Seattle. However, the supplied material includes no live contract prices, so it does not establish how far probabilities moved or whether San Francisco became the market favorite.

The linked Sportradar page contains website code rather than usable game reporting. This account therefore relies on the supplied summary; the exact game clock and further details of the scoring sequence are unavailable.

What it means for prediction markets

• Pregame pricing is only a baseline: San Francisco’s approximately 39-41% probability describes its position before kickoff, not its chances at the reported game state.
• A scoreboard reversal is not a verified market reversal: The 14-13 lead contrasts with Seattle’s pregame advantage, but no live price is provided to quantify repricing.
• Timing matters: This is a late-second-quarter snapshot, not a halftime score or final result.