Infiniti Intelligence Hourly Briefing — Oct 9, 2026 · 12:54 PM ET

Rep. Ritchie Torres (D., N.Y.) formally introduced the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026 on Friday, Oct. 9, with more than 30 Democratic co-sponsors, according to Front Office Sports, whose reporting was republished by GambleRSS. Supporters include former Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Rep. Andre Carson (D., Ind.) and Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D., Mich.). The proposal has no Republican backing so far; Torres’s communications director, Benny Stanislawski, said the invitation to join extends to all members of Congress.

A targeted restriction on government insiders

The bill would prohibit federal elected officials, political appointees, executive branch employees and congressional staff from trading certain event contracts when they hold—or could reasonably obtain through their jobs—material nonpublic information. The restriction would cover contracts linked to government policy, government action or political outcomes.

Torres described the proposal as a limited starting point rather than a complete regulatory framework. According to Front Office Sports, he argues that officials involved in government decisions should not be able to profit anonymously from contracts dependent on those decisions. The report contrasts the prohibition on insider trading in traditional financial markets, overseen by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, with uncertainty over how existing law applies to prediction markets under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), where commodities rules, gambling law and financial-market regulation intersect.

Venezuela trades accelerated the proposal

Torres had spent a few months developing the legislation before trades on Polymarket linked to U.S. military action in Venezuela pushed him to introduce it. Among the contracts was one concerning whether President Nicolás Maduro would lose power by the end of this month. A newly established anonymous account reportedly earned more than $400,000 in less than 24 hours. Torres cited the profit associated with Maduro’s capture as grounds for concern about possible insider participation, not as proof of the trader’s identity.

The account holder remains unknown. A widely circulated social-media post claimed that blockchain records and transaction patterns suggested a connection to Steve Witkoff, the real estate executive serving as President Donald Trump’s special envoy to the Middle East. A representative of World Liberty Financial rejected that speculation in an email to Front Office Sports, describing it as false and dangerous. Witkoff and Trump family members, including the president and his sons, founded the cryptocurrency company in 2024.

Platforms respond as sports scrutiny continues

Torres said Kalshi and Polymarket had contacted him after the proposal attracted attention, although neither had yet met with him; he remained open to discussions. Kalshi cofounder and CEO Tarek Mansour endorsed the bill on LinkedIn and said his platform has always prohibited insider trading. Polymarket did not immediately answer Front Office Sports’ request for comment.

Much of the wider controversy has focused on sports contracts, which critics equate with sports betting. Torres favors dealing with sports through broader prediction-market regulation, while some other lawmakers want separate legislation. New York Assemblyman Clyde Vanel introduced a bill in November that would let the state regulate or prohibit prediction markets. Its sports provisions would permit contracts only on selected matters, including the outcome of March Madness or other professional sports league playoffs.

Separately, a bipartisan group of lawmakers from Utah, Arizona, Michigan and California sent the CFTC a letter in September raising concerns about sports event contracts, according to Front Office Sports. That effort sits alongside Torres’s narrower focus on government officials’ access to information.

What it means for prediction markets

• Introduction is not enactment. The bill has more than 30 Democratic co-sponsors, but Republican support has not yet materialized.
• The proposed restriction is specific. It targets designated government personnel trading government- or politics-related contracts when their official roles provide access to material nonpublic information.
• The suspicious trades remain unresolved. The reported profit and timing prompted scrutiny, but the trader’s identity is unknown, and the suggested Witkoff connection was denied.
• Insider trading and sports face distinct policy debates. Torres’s proposal would not provide the comprehensive framework he says prediction markets need.

Senate proposal targets officials’ trading

Sens. Jeff Merkley (D-OR) and Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) have introduced the End Prediction Market Corruption Act, seeking to prohibit the president, vice president, members of Congress and other senior government officials from trading event contracts. According to Casino.org, whose reporting was republished by GambleRss, the proposal follows insider-trading controversies surrounding US military actions in Venezuela and Iran.

The companion proposal would also strengthen the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s ability to pursue misconduct. Merkley framed the measure as a safeguard against officials putting personal profit ahead of public duties, while Klobuchar said it would prevent people with confidential government or policy information from monetizing that access.

Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY), Adam Schiff (D-CA) and Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) are cosponsors. Casino.org describes Schiff as an outspoken prediction-market critic and notes that his state has a significant number of tribal casinos.

Geopolitical contracts draw scrutiny

According to Casino.org, evidence points to a Polymarket participant earning around $400K from contracts connected to the US military operation involving the capture of former Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro. The report raises a possible White House connection but does not establish one. It also describes suspicious trading patterns in contracts concerning the conflict in Iran.

The scrutiny extends beyond the US. Israeli authorities brought securities charges against two people last month over Polymarket trades linked to Israel’s military actions in Iran, according to the report.

Murphy plans a separate restriction

Chris Murphy (D-CT) is expected to introduce his own prediction-market insider-trading legislation later this month. Rather than focusing solely on who may trade, his proposal would prohibit contracts linked to government actions and politicians’ related statements, including “mention” markets. It would not seek to prohibit economic and financial derivatives offered by prediction markets.

In a social media post, Murphy argued that people close to Donald Trump likely had advance knowledge on Friday of events occurring on Saturday, and that bettors probably included people with inside information. Those assertions remain allegations, not findings established in the supplied reporting.

What it means for prediction markets

• Two distinct legislative approaches: Merkley and Klobuchar would restrict participation by senior officials; Murphy’s planned measure would restrict certain contract categories.
• Enforcement authority is also at issue: The Merkley–Klobuchar proposal seeks to strengthen the CFTC’s ability to address misconduct involving confidential information.
• Scope matters: Murphy’s stated exclusion of economic and financial derivatives distinguishes his planned restrictions from a blanket prohibition on prediction markets.
• These are proposals, not enacted rules: The reported trading controversies explain the legislative push but do not, by themselves, establish insider-trading violations.