Senate version from Merkley/Klobuchar; Murphy bill coming too

Senate proposal targets officials’ trading

Sens. Jeff Merkley (D-OR) and Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) have introduced the End Prediction Market Corruption Act, seeking to prohibit the president, vice president, members of Congress and other senior government officials from trading event contracts. According to Casino.org, whose reporting was republished by GambleRss, the proposal follows insider-trading controversies surrounding US military actions in Venezuela and Iran.

The companion proposal would also strengthen the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s ability to pursue misconduct. Merkley framed the measure as a safeguard against officials putting personal profit ahead of public duties, while Klobuchar said it would prevent people with confidential government or policy information from monetizing that access.

Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY), Adam Schiff (D-CA) and Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) are cosponsors. Casino.org describes Schiff as an outspoken prediction-market critic and notes that his state has a significant number of tribal casinos.

Geopolitical contracts draw scrutiny

According to Casino.org, evidence points to a Polymarket participant earning around $400K from contracts connected to the US military operation involving the capture of former Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro. The report raises a possible White House connection but does not establish one. It also describes suspicious trading patterns in contracts concerning the conflict in Iran.

The scrutiny extends beyond the US. Israeli authorities brought securities charges against two people last month over Polymarket trades linked to Israel’s military actions in Iran, according to the report.

Murphy plans a separate restriction

Chris Murphy (D-CT) is expected to introduce his own prediction-market insider-trading legislation later this month. Rather than focusing solely on who may trade, his proposal would prohibit contracts linked to government actions and politicians’ related statements, including “mention” markets. It would not seek to prohibit economic and financial derivatives offered by prediction markets.

In a social media post, Murphy argued that people close to Donald Trump likely had advance knowledge on Friday of events occurring on Saturday, and that bettors probably included people with inside information. Those assertions remain allegations, not findings established in the supplied reporting.

What it means for prediction markets

• Two distinct legislative approaches: Merkley and Klobuchar would restrict participation by senior officials; Murphy’s planned measure would restrict certain contract categories.
• Enforcement authority is also at issue: The Merkley–Klobuchar proposal seeks to strengthen the CFTC’s ability to address misconduct involving confidential information.
• Scope matters: Murphy’s stated exclusion of economic and financial derivatives distinguishes his planned restrictions from a blanket prohibition on prediction markets.
• These are proposals, not enacted rules: The reported trading controversies explain the legislative push but do not, by themselves, establish insider-trading violations.