Infiniti Intelligence Hourly Briefing — Oct 9, 2026 · 12:54 AM ET

Kalshi, Polymarket and the Coalition for Prediction Markets have together spent at least $3 million in 2026 on lobbying and campaign contributions at the state and federal levels, according to an OpenSecrets analysis reported by Stateline and republished by usa-today-news.com. The spending comes amid a widening dispute over whether prediction markets fall exclusively under federal derivatives regulation or must also comply with state gambling laws.

Kalshi builds a state-level presence

Kalshi, described in the reporting as by far the largest prediction-market platform, has hired at least one lobbyist in 41 states, with particular attention to California and New York. OpenSecrets found that its lobbying network covers every state where lawmakers have introduced legislation specifically addressing prediction markets.

The company contributed more than $300,000 combined to the Republican Attorneys General Association and the Democratic Attorneys General Association. In the first half of the year, it also gave $100,000 to the Republican Governors Association and $150,000 to the Democratic Governors Association. Kalshi spokesperson Dani Lever told OpenSecrets that the company supports candidates from both parties.

Federal advocacy remains another substantial expense. Kalshi alone spent nearly $1 million on federal lobbying during the first half of the year, targeting the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the White House, the Securities & Exchange Commission and both chambers of Congress.

A fight over regulatory authority

Platforms argue that their contracts resemble commodity-market instruments used to speculate on future corn or oil prices, rather than sportsbook wagers. State lawmakers from both parties contend that the businesses bypass gambling restrictions, taxes and consumer protections, particularly through sports contracts. This summer, Kalshi’s Head of Corporate Development, Sara Slane, told lawmakers the company wanted stronger relationships with states while maintaining that oversight belongs to the CFTC.

The dispute has produced regulatory action, legislation and lawsuits involving states, platforms and the Trump administration, which has sought to limit state oversight. The CFTC has sued nine states over their attempts to regulate the industry, despite having four vacancies on its five-member commission. Donald Trump Jr., the president’s eldest son, holds financial stakes in both Kalshi and Polymarket.

Many observers expect the U.S. Supreme Court eventually to determine the states’ regulatory role, according to Stateline. Brad Lipton, director of the Roosevelt Institute’s corporate power and financial regulation program, told OpenSecrets that the lobbying reflects a fundamental challenge to the industry’s business model: whether it can compete while complying with state law. He characterized the political effort as an attempt to counter weaknesses in the platforms’ legal position.

What it means for prediction markets

• Regulatory jurisdiction remains unresolved. Federal backing has not ended state challenges, leaving the scope of state authority a central issue for market participants.
• State politics matter alongside federal policy. Kalshi’s presence in 41 states and contributions to governors’ and attorneys general organizations show how broadly the dispute extends.
• Spending is not a legal outcome. The reported lobbying and contributions demonstrate the industry’s political commitment, but do not establish how pending litigation or legislation will conclude.

The NFL has asked the Supreme Court to treat sports prediction markets as gambling platforms subject to state oversight, according to the New York Post. Its amicus brief supports New Jersey’s petition for review in Flaherty v. KalshiEX, escalating a dispute over whether federal regulation displaces state gambling laws.

A fight over regulatory authority

New Jersey is seeking to overturn an appellate ruling that put federal regulators ahead of the states, while federal appeals courts have reached conflicting conclusions about who has jurisdiction, the Post reported. The challenge has support from attorneys general representing 39 states and DC, as well as dozens of Native tribes and the casino industry. Separately, New York Attorney General Letitia James has sued Kalshi and Polymarket, alleging that they operate illegal gambling businesses.

The commercial stakes are substantial: the NFL said football generated $1.8 billion in prediction-market trading on the season’s first Sunday, accounting for more than half of total volume. The platforms fall under Commodity Futures Trading Commission oversight, but critics argue that this structure lets them avoid state gambling taxes and penalties while accepting sports wagers from users as young as 18. The NFL wants a minimum betting age of 21 and says its objection concerns oversight, not prediction markets themselves.

Integrity concerns and platform responses

The league argues that divided regulatory authority undermines its ability to protect consumers and competition. Its filing describes potential manipulation involving a kicker deliberately missing a field goal or a wide receiver deliberately fumbling a pass, alongside insider-trading risks in contracts tied to injuries and officiating. Commissioner Roger Goodell told CNBC Sport in September that protecting game integrity mattered more than moving quickly into prediction-market partnerships.

Kalshi disputed the NFL’s account, telling the Post that its attempts to engage with the league had gone unanswered. A spokesperson pointed to partnerships including MLB and NHL, said the CFTC actively supervises sports markets now offered on nearly every US commodities exchange, and argued that ongoing rulemaking addresses many of the league’s concerns. Polymarket likewise defended federal oversight, citing surveillance tools and collaboration with the CFTC, SEC and professional leagues as an alternative to differing state requirements.

Leagues remain divided

According to the Post, MLB, Major League Soccer and UFC have agreements with Polymarket, while NHL works with both Polymarket and Kalshi. NBA, PGA and NFL have not partnered with either platform; the NFL also prohibits advertising partnerships with them. Those differing approaches leave the industry without a unified position on how sports event contracts should fit into the betting landscape.

Kalshi and Polymarket have grown rapidly since their US launches in July 2021 and December 2025, respectively, offering contracts across sports, entertainment and politics. Both have announced insider-trading prevention policies, but the Post reported that government employees and business insiders have made thousands of dollars trading futures contracts using privileged information.

In August, Kalshi imposed its first lifetime ban on former Rep. George Santos over allegations that he earned more than $17,000 betting on his own State of the Union attendance. This spring, federal prosecutors charged an Army officer over allegations that he made $400,000 trading on Polymarket with classified information about the military operation to capture Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro.

What it means for prediction markets

• Court review is the immediate issue. The NFL’s filing supports a petition for Supreme Court review; it is not a ruling that sports contracts constitute state-regulated gambling.
• Access and operating costs are at stake. State oversight could bring gambling taxes and a minimum betting age of 21, affecting both platforms and eligible participants.
• Integrity is central to the dispute. The NFL argues that regulatory gaps create risks, while the platforms maintain that federal supervision and surveillance provide effective safeguards.
• Partnerships do not settle jurisdiction. Several leagues have commercial agreements with prediction platforms, but the NFL’s position underscores the continuing division over their regulatory treatment.