OpenSecrets: prediction markets spent $3M+ lobbying this year

Kalshi, Polymarket and the Coalition for Prediction Markets have together spent at least $3 million in 2026 on lobbying and campaign contributions at the state and federal levels, according to an OpenSecrets analysis reported by Stateline and republished by usa-today-news.com. The spending comes amid a widening dispute over whether prediction markets fall exclusively under federal derivatives regulation or must also comply with state gambling laws.

Kalshi builds a state-level presence

Kalshi, described in the reporting as by far the largest prediction-market platform, has hired at least one lobbyist in 41 states, with particular attention to California and New York. OpenSecrets found that its lobbying network covers every state where lawmakers have introduced legislation specifically addressing prediction markets.

The company contributed more than $300,000 combined to the Republican Attorneys General Association and the Democratic Attorneys General Association. In the first half of the year, it also gave $100,000 to the Republican Governors Association and $150,000 to the Democratic Governors Association. Kalshi spokesperson Dani Lever told OpenSecrets that the company supports candidates from both parties.

Federal advocacy remains another substantial expense. Kalshi alone spent nearly $1 million on federal lobbying during the first half of the year, targeting the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the White House, the Securities & Exchange Commission and both chambers of Congress.

A fight over regulatory authority

Platforms argue that their contracts resemble commodity-market instruments used to speculate on future corn or oil prices, rather than sportsbook wagers. State lawmakers from both parties contend that the businesses bypass gambling restrictions, taxes and consumer protections, particularly through sports contracts. This summer, Kalshi’s Head of Corporate Development, Sara Slane, told lawmakers the company wanted stronger relationships with states while maintaining that oversight belongs to the CFTC.

The dispute has produced regulatory action, legislation and lawsuits involving states, platforms and the Trump administration, which has sought to limit state oversight. The CFTC has sued nine states over their attempts to regulate the industry, despite having four vacancies on its five-member commission. Donald Trump Jr., the president’s eldest son, holds financial stakes in both Kalshi and Polymarket.

Many observers expect the U.S. Supreme Court eventually to determine the states’ regulatory role, according to Stateline. Brad Lipton, director of the Roosevelt Institute’s corporate power and financial regulation program, told OpenSecrets that the lobbying reflects a fundamental challenge to the industry’s business model: whether it can compete while complying with state law. He characterized the political effort as an attempt to counter weaknesses in the platforms’ legal position.

What it means for prediction markets

• Regulatory jurisdiction remains unresolved. Federal backing has not ended state challenges, leaving the scope of state authority a central issue for market participants.
• State politics matter alongside federal policy. Kalshi’s presence in 41 states and contributions to governors’ and attorneys general organizations show how broadly the dispute extends.
• Spending is not a legal outcome. The reported lobbying and contributions demonstrate the industry’s political commitment, but do not establish how pending litigation or legislation will conclude.