Xinran Sun wins priced at 9.0% on Kalshi, down 26.0 points, on $748K traded
PredictionBubbles' movers board, on the same Oct. 29, 10:24 UTC crawl, lists the Xinran Sun contract among its largest downward sports moves, in a sports markets…
The Kalshi contract on Xinran Sun winning was priced at 9.0%, down 26.0 probability points over 24 hours, with $748K traded, according to the supplied market snapshot. PredictionBubbles’ movers board placed the contract among its largest downward sports moves in the Oct. 29, 10:24 UTC crawl.
A sharp repricing, with limited event context
The figures show a substantial reduction in the market-implied chance of a Xinran Sun win. The supplied material does not identify the competition, settlement date or a specific development behind the decline, leaving the catalyst unconfirmed.
The timestamps also require distinction. While the summary identifies an Oct. 29, 10:24 UTC crawl, the supplied PredictionBubbles page says its venue prices were refreshed on 29 Oct 2026, 10:07 UTC. The board updates every 15 minutes using prices from Kalshi and Polymarket.
How the move is ranked
According to PredictionBubbles, the board orders markets by the size of their 24-hour probability-point changes, rather than relative percentage changes. Trading volume and liquidity provide context but do not affect placement, so the $748K traded is separate from the measure driving this contract’s ranking.
The supplied page covers 2,042 markets lasting longer than 14 days and excludes same-week fixtures. Only open contracts with a valid 24-hour comparison qualify. Xinran Sun’s placement therefore describes a move within that screened universe, not necessarily across every sports contract available.
What it means for prediction markets
- The decline is 26.0 probability points, not 26.0%. The 9.0% price represents the reported market-implied probability at the snapshot.
- Volume does not establish liquidity. The $748K traded adds activity context, but the supplied material does not provide order-book depth or specify the period covered by that figure.
- The cause remains unresolved. Without competition details, settlement terms or event reporting, the price change alone cannot establish why traders lowered the contract’s probability.
Sources & attribution
- [1]Predictionbubbles (predictionbubbles.net)https://predictionbubbles.net/markets/movers/
Date & time:
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