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Republican election odds show largest split in matched prediction markets

PolymarketTrader matched 10 events listed on both Polymarket and Kalshi on November 1 and found the widest gap on which party wins the 2028 presidential election, with Republicans at 34.5 percent on Polymarket and 40.5 percent on Kalshi. The two venues agreed exactly on a December Fed rate hike at 70.5 percent on both.

A comparison of 10 events available on both Polymarket and Kalshi found the largest pricing difference in the market for which party wins the 2028 presidential election, according to PolymarketTrader.

The November 1 comparison put the Republican probability at 34.5 percent on Polymarket and 40.5 percent on Kalshi. The findings were published on Nov 1, 2026, at 7:45 PM ET.

Election divergence, Fed agreement

The Republican outcome was priced higher on Kalshi than on Polymarket. That made it the widest gap within the 10 matched events—not necessarily across all markets on the two venues.

By contrast, the platforms assigned identical probabilities to a December Fed rate hike: 70.5 percent on each, according to PolymarketTrader.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The comparison shows that a matched event can carry different implied probabilities depending on the venue.
  • The December Fed rate-hike match shows that the observed divergence was not present in every event examined.
  • The supplied summary does not include contract terms, liquidity or execution costs, limiting conclusions about whether the election-price difference represents a tradable opportunity.
KalshiPolymarketElectionsInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    PolymarketTraderpolymarket.com
    Publisher
    https://polymarket.com
    Source URL
    The feed did not publish this story's article address.

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