Widest cross-venue gap: 2028 GOP nominee, Vance 42c Kalshi vs 48.8c Polymarket

GOP nomination prices lead the reported gaps

The supplied snapshot, published Oct 13, 2026 · 1:09 PM ET, identifies the 2028 GOP nominee market as having the widest cross-venue gap, with Vance priced at 42c on Kalshi and 48.8c on Polymarket.

The summary puts that difference at 6.2 percentage points, ahead of Hollande in France at 4.1 and New Taipei mayor at 4.0. However, the displayed Vance prices imply a 6.8-point difference, not 6.2. The provided material does not explain the discrepancy.

Source material limits verification

The supplied source excerpt does not document those cross-venue comparisons. According to picksbyodds.com, the YES price for a separate contract—whether the upper bound of the federal funds rate will exceed 5.00% following the Fed's Mar 17, 2027 meeting—has moved 21.0 percentage points since its archive began.

That excerpt gives neither the direction of the move nor the archive’s starting date. It describes the observation as a research signal rather than trading advice, and it provides no corroborating prices for the political markets in the summary.

What it means for prediction markets

• The Vance prices show a higher implied likelihood on Polymarket than on Kalshi, but the stated 6.2-point gap is inconsistent with the displayed quotes.
• The summary ranks the GOP nomination gap above the Hollande and New Taipei mayor gaps; the supplied source excerpt does not independently substantiate that ranking.
• The Fed contract’s 21.0-point move measures change over time, not a difference between venues. It should not be treated as another cross-venue comparison.