Conroy edges Baumgartner in market pricing for Republican-held Washington seat
Polyguana reports Democrat Carmela Conroy leads Republican Michael Baumgartner 49 percent to 43.5 percent in Washington's 5th district, a Republican-held seat the board prices as a possible Democratic flip. The market swung 35.6 points, with about 2,300 dollars traded in the last day.
Democrat Carmela Conroy holds a narrow lead over Republican Michael Baumgartner in prediction-market pricing for Washington's 5th district, according to Polyguana. Its update was published Nov 3, 2026, at 10:15 PM ET.
Conroy was priced at 49 percent, compared with 43.5 percent for Baumgartner. That puts the gap between the two candidates at 5.5 percentage points, with neither priced above 50 percent.
A potential change in party control
The seat is Republican-held, making a Conroy victory a Democratic flip. Polyguana described the contest as the closest House race on the board—a characterization of market pricing, not a reported vote margin.
The market swung 35.6 points, according to Polyguana, with about 2,300 dollars traded in the last day. The supplied summary does not specify the direction or time frame of that swing.
What it means for prediction markets
- A narrow pricing advantage: Conroy's 49 percent price leads Baumgartner's 43.5 percent, but does not indicate an overwhelming market favorite.
- Party control is at stake: The pricing positions this Republican-held district as a possible Democratic pickup.
- Movement needs context: The 35.6-point swing and about 2,300 dollars in last-day trading are relevant signals, but the summary does not establish what drove the change.
Sources & attribution
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- Polyguana
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