Conroy gains ground as Washington’s 5th district market favors Democratic flip
Polyguana reports Democrat Carmela Conroy has climbed to 62.8 percent against Republican Michael Baumgartner at 35.5 percent in Washington's 5th district, up from 49 percent in the previous live read. The Republican-held seat is now priced as a Democratic flip.
Democrat Carmela Conroy has moved to 62.8 percent in the market for Washington’s 5th district House race, according to Polyguana. Republican Michael Baumgartner stands at 35.5 percent.
The update, published Nov 3, 2026 at 10:30 PM ET, puts Conroy ahead in market pricing for a Republican-held seat.
A shift from the previous reading
Conroy was priced at 49 percent in the previous live reading, according to Polyguana. Her latest level represents a 13.8-percentage-point increase.
Polyguana had previously described the contest as the most competitive race on its board. The latest pricing instead favors a Democratic flip, though a market lead is not an election result.
What it means for prediction markets
- Control of the seat: The market now favors a Democratic pickup in Washington’s 5th district, with Conroy at 62.8 percent against Baumgartner’s 35.5 percent.
- Change in expectations: Conroy’s rise from 49 percent marks a shift from below-even pricing to a clearer market advantage.
- Limits of the update: The supplied summary does not identify what drove the move or provide vote-count information to assess it against election returns.
Sources & attribution
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- Polyguana
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