Baltimore wins priced at 40.0% on Kalshi, down 9.0 points, on $767K traded

Baltimore contract moves lower

Kalshi’s Baltimore win contract was priced at 40.0%, down 9.0 probability points, with $767K traded, in the update published Oct 25, 2026 at 1:24 PM ET. According to PredictionBubbles, the contract appeared among declining sports markets on its movers board, rather than as the board’s lead item.

The supplied material does not identify Baltimore’s opponent, the specific event or the contract’s settlement terms. It also provides no explanation for the decline, limiting what can be concluded about the sporting outlook behind the price change.

How the board measures movement

According to PredictionBubbles, its rankings compare prices over 24 hours and refresh every 15 minutes using data from Polymarket and Kalshi. The supplied snapshot records venue data retrieved on 25 Oct 2026, 17:12 UTC.

The board ranks changes by their absolute size in probability points, not by relative percentage changes. Trading volume and liquidity provide context but do not affect a contract’s position in that ranking.

PredictionBubbles says the board covers 1,981 markets lasting longer than 14 days and excludes same-week fixtures. Its broader movers table displays the top 150 of 508 markets that changed by at least one probability point, with only open contracts possessing a valid 24-hour comparison eligible for ranking.

What it means for prediction markets

• Baltimore’s 9.0-point decline represents a lower market-implied likelihood of a win, not a 9.0% relative price change.
• The $767K traded adds activity context, but the supplied material does not establish order-book depth or explain what drove the repricing.
• Without the event identity and settlement rules, the 40.0% price cannot be tied confidently to a particular Baltimore matchup or sporting development.