Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026 priced at 16.0% on Polymarket, up 7.5 points, on $159K traded
PredictionBubbles' movers board lists the Venezuela election-scheduling contract among its upward political moves, in a political/election category distinct from the…
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The Polymarket contract on whether a Venezuela election will be scheduled by December 31, 2026 was priced at 16.0%, up 7.5 percentage points, with $159K traded, in the Oct 26, 2026 · 5:39 AM ET update. According to PredictionBubbles, the contract appeared among upward moves in its political/election category.
The increase represents a higher market-implied probability of scheduling by the deadline, though the price remains well below 50%. The supplied material does not identify a political announcement or other specific catalyst for the move.
How the move is measured
According to PredictionBubbles, its movers board compares prices over 24 hours and refreshes every 15 minutes using data from Polymarket and Kalshi. The supplied snapshot records venue data retrieved on 26 Oct 2026, 09:10 UTC.
The board ranks changes in probability points, rather than relative percentages. Volume and liquidity provide context but do not affect a contract’s ranking. The $159K traded figure therefore describes a separate dimension of activity; it does not establish the market’s depth.
What the listing establishes
PredictionBubbles says the ranking covers 2,033 markets with lifespans longer than 14 days. Only open contracts with a valid 24-hour comparison qualify, and the displayed table includes the top 150 of 517 markets moving at least one probability point.
That framework establishes the Venezuela contract as a repricing story, not confirmation of an election timetable. The supplied material also does not include the contract’s detailed resolution rules, leaving the precise requirements for a qualifying scheduling announcement unspecified.
What it means for prediction markets
Direction and level differ: The 7.5-point rise is an upward repricing, while the 16.0% price still assigns a relatively low probability to the outcome.
Scheduling is the relevant event: The stated question concerns an election being scheduled by December 31, 2026, not necessarily being held by that date.
The catalyst remains unverified: The movers listing shows a price change but does not explain what drove it.
Volume is not liquidity: The reported $159K traded does not, by itself, show how readily traders could transact at the displayed price.