US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8 priced at 65.5% on Polymarket, up 4.5 points, on $166K traded

Ceasefire contract moves higher

Polymarket’s contract on whether the US–Iran ceasefire continues through November 8 was priced at 65.5%, up 4.5 probability points, with $166K traded, in the update published Oct 26, 2026 at 6:09 AM ET.

According to PredictionBubbles, the November 8 contract appeared among rising markets in its political/election category, rather than as the board’s lead mover. The supplied material does not identify a diplomatic or military development behind the increase.

What the board measures

PredictionBubbles ranks changes over 24 hours using probability points, rather than relative percentage gains. Its prices come from Polymarket and Kalshi, with updates every 15 minutes; the supplied snapshot records venue data read on 26 Oct 2026 at 09:40 UTC.

The board’s ranking universe comprised 2,023 markets lasting longer than 14 days. It excludes resolved contracts and those without a valid 24-hour comparison. Trading volume provides context but does not affect the movement ranking.

The ceasefire figures therefore show a higher market-implied probability, not independent confirmation that the ceasefire will endure. The supplied excerpt does not include the contract’s resolution terms or order-book depth, limiting what can be concluded about either its settlement criteria or liquidity.

What it means for prediction markets

• Direction: The 4.5-point increase represents an upward repricing of the November 8 ceasefire outcome over the board’s 24-hour measurement window.
• Trading context: The reported $166K traded is relevant activity data, but it does not establish how much liquidity was available at the quoted price.
• Evidence limits: No specific catalyst is identified in the supplied reporting, and the 65.5% price should not be treated as verification of conditions on the ground.