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NFL contracts captured 69 percent of US prediction market volume by October 11

USA Today reports it replicated the NFL claim in an October 8 Supreme Court brief that 1.8 billion dollars of 3.3 billion dollars in prediction market trading on the first Sunday of the 2026 season was NFL-related, calculating about 59 percent of notional volume on Kalshi and Polymarket US was NFL-related on September 13. USA Today found that share grew each following week to 69 percent by October 11, with all-NFL combination trades jumping from a 30 percent share to 45 percent.

NFL share grows across weekly readings

NFL-related contracts accounted for about 59 percent of notional trading volume on Kalshi and Polymarket US on September 13, rising to 69 percent by October 11, according to USA Today. Its analysis found that the share increased each following week.

The findings follow an NFL claim in an October 8 Supreme Court brief that $1.8 billion of $3.3 billion in prediction-market trading on the first Sunday of the 2026 season was NFL-related.

Combination trades gain ground

USA Today reported that it replicated the NFL’s analysis, calculating the approximately 59 percent NFL-related share for September 13 on Kalshi and Polymarket US.

The outlet also found that all-NFL combination trades increased from a 30 percent share to 45 percent. That shift accompanied the broader rise in NFL-related activity over the period examined.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Activity became more concentrated in NFL contracts. The reported share rose from about 59 percent to 69 percent; those percentages alone do not establish whether total trading volume increased.
  • The composition of trading also shifted. All-NFL combination trades gained share from 30 percent to 45 percent, making them an increasingly prominent part of the activity USA Today measured.
  • The scope matters. The analysis covered notional volume on Kalshi and Polymarket US, rather than establishing an NFL share for every prediction-market platform.
KalshiPolymarketNFLSCOTUSInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

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  1. Source
    USA Todayusatoday.com
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    https://www.usatoday.com
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