US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31 priced at 73.5% on Polymarket, down 8 points, on $5.3M traded

The Polymarket contract on whether the US–Iran ceasefire continues through October 31 was priced at 73.5%, down 8 probability points, with $5.3M traded, in the Oct 22, 2026 · 3:24 AM ET update. According to PredictionBubbles, the contract appeared among the downward moves in its politics/geopolitics category.

The decline signals a lower market-implied likelihood of continuation, although the price still favors that outcome. The supplied material does not identify a diplomatic or military development behind the move.

How the move is measured

According to PredictionBubbles, its movers board compares prices over 24 hours and refreshes every 15 minutes using data from Polymarket and Kalshi. The supplied snapshot was read from the venues on 22 Oct 2026, 07:10 UTC.

The board ranks changes in probability points, rather than relative percentages. The ceasefire contract’s 8-point decline therefore describes the change in its implied probability—not an 8% relative fall.

What the figures leave open

PredictionBubbles says its ranking covers 2,020 markets lasting longer than 14 days, excluding same-week fixtures. Only open contracts with a valid 24-hour price comparison qualify; trading volume and liquidity provide context but do not determine rank.

The $5.3M traded figure accompanies the ceasefire contract’s price move, but the supplied contract information does not specify its measurement period or provide order-book depth. It also does not include the contract’s settlement rules, limiting conclusions about exactly what would count as ceasefire continuation.

What it means for prediction markets

• Continuation remains favored: The 73.5% price is above even odds despite the 8-point decline.
• Repricing is not confirmation: The move records a change in market pricing, not proof that the ceasefire has weakened or ended.
• Volume and liquidity are different: The $5.3M traded figure alone does not establish how readily orders can be executed.
• Resolution details matter: Without the settlement criteria, the supplied material cannot establish which developments would determine the October 31 outcome.