US strike on Colombia by December 31 priced at 24.0% on Polymarket, down 3 points, on $1.2M traded
PredictionBubbles' movers board lists the Colombia strike contract among its downward political moves, in a political/geopolitics category distinct from the lead. It has…
The Polymarket contract on a US strike on Colombia by December 31 was priced at 24.0%, down 3 probability points, with $1.2M traded in the supplied Oct 23, 2026, 11:54 PM ET update. According to PredictionBubbles’ movers board, the contract appeared among declining political markets in its political/geopolitics category.
The move reflects a lower market-implied probability over the board’s 24-hour comparison window. The supplied material does not identify a news event behind the decline or provide the contract’s resolution criteria.
How the move is measured
According to PredictionBubbles, its board compares prices from Polymarket and Kalshi every 15 minutes and orders markets by the size of their 24-hour probability-point changes, regardless of direction. The supplied snapshot records venue data read on 24 Oct 2026, 03:33 UTC.
The ranking covers 1,992 markets with lifespans longer than 14 days. Only open contracts with a valid day-old price comparison qualify; markets without that baseline are excluded rather than assigned an estimated change.
Volume provides context, not an explanation
The $1.2M traded figure accompanies the Colombia contract’s repricing, but the supplied headline does not specify its measurement period. It should therefore not be treated as confirmed 24-hour turnover.
PredictionBubbles says volume and liquidity provide context but do not affect its movement ranking. The supplied source extract does not include the Colombia contract’s individual card, leaving its order-book depth and the trading behind the decline unverified here.
What it means for prediction markets
- The change is in probability points: the reported decline is 3 points, not a 3% relative fall.
- Price is not confirmation: the 24.0% reading describes market pricing, not evidence that a strike will or will not occur.
- Important details remain unavailable: the supplied material does not establish a catalyst, the volume period or the precise conditions for settlement.
Sources & attribution
- [1]Predictionbubbles (predictionbubbles.net)https://predictionbubbles.net/markets/movers/
Date & time:
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