Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá priced at 35.0% on Polymarket, up 4.5 points, on $227K traded
PredictionBubbles' movers board lists the Amapá second-round contract among its upward political moves, in a political/election category distinct from the lead. It has…
The Polymarket contract on whether Lula will receive the most votes in Amapá in the second round of the Brazil presidential election was priced at 35.0%, up 4.5 probability points, with $227K traded, in the supplied Oct 24, 2026 · 12:24 AM ET update.
According to PredictionBubbles, the Amapá contract appeared among upward-moving political markets on its movers board. The question concerns the second-round vote in Amapá, rather than the nationwide election result.
How the move is measured
PredictionBubbles ranks changes over a 24-hour window using probability points, not relative percentage gains. Its board draws prices from Polymarket and Kalshi and refreshes every 15 minutes; the supplied snapshot records venue data retrieved on 24 Oct 2026, 04:18 UTC.
The board’s ranking covers 1,992 markets that remain live for longer than 14 days, according to PredictionBubbles. Only open contracts with a valid day-earlier comparison qualify, and volume does not affect their position in the movement ranking.
What the figures establish
The Amapá price shows an upward reassessment by traders, but the supplied material identifies no specific poll, announcement or other catalyst. It also provides no contract-level order-book depth or resolution terms. The $227K trading figure supplies activity context, but does not by itself establish how much liquidity was available when the price moved.
What it means for prediction markets
- Scope matters: This is an Amapá second-round vote contract, not a direct market on who wins Brazil’s presidency.
- Direction and level are different signals: The 4.5-point rise indicates stronger pricing for Lula’s outcome, while 35.0% remains below an even-chance valuation.
- The cause remains unverified: The reported move establishes repricing, not independent evidence of a change in voter preferences.
- Volume is not depth: The $227K traded figure should not be treated as a measure of available liquidity or proof that the new price will persist.
Sources & attribution
- [1]Predictionbubbles (predictionbubbles.net)https://predictionbubbles.net/markets/movers/
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