US strike on Colombia by December 31 priced at 21.5% on Polymarket, down 4.5 points, on $1.2M traded
PredictionBubbles' movers board lists the Colombia strike contract among its downward political moves, in a political/election category distinct from the lead. It has…
Polymarket’s contract on a US strike on Colombia by December 31 was priced at 21.5%, down 4.5 percentage points, with $1.2M traded, according to the supplied market update published Oct 24, 2026, at 7:09 PM ET.
According to PredictionBubbles, the contract appeared among declining markets in its political/election category. The move reflects a lower market-implied probability over the preceding 24 hours, rather than confirmation of any change in US policy or military activity.
How the move is measured
PredictionBubbles ranks contracts by the size of their 24-hour probability-point changes, not by relative percentage changes or trading volume. Its board covers Polymarket and Kalshi and refreshes every 15 minutes; the supplied page records venue data retrieved on 24 Oct 2026, at 22:44 UTC.
The board’s ranking universe comprises 1,973 markets lasting longer than 14 days. Only open contracts with a valid day-earlier comparison qualify, and a change of at least one probability point counts as a moving market.
What the available data leaves unresolved
The supplied material does not identify a news event or other catalyst behind the Colombia contract’s decline. It also does not include the contract’s detailed settlement criteria, leaving the precise definition of a qualifying strike unspecified here.
The $1.2M trading figure provides context, but the supplied headline does not state its measurement period. It therefore should not be treated as confirmed 24-hour turnover or as a measure of available liquidity.
What it means for prediction markets
- Direction: The 4.5-point decline shows traders assigning a lower implied probability to a US strike on Colombia by December 31.
- Interpretation: The 21.5% price is a market estimate, not evidence that a strike will or will not occur.
- Limits: Without a documented catalyst, settlement terms or liquidity data, the snapshot establishes repricing but does not explain its cause or durability.
Sources & attribution
- [1]Predictionbubbles (predictionbubbles.net)https://predictionbubbles.net/markets/movers/
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