No change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting priced at 94.5% on Polymarket, up 2.0 points, on $18.4M traded

Polymarket traders priced a 94.5% probability that Fed interest rates would remain unchanged after the October 2026 meeting, up 2.0 percentage points over 24 hours. The snapshot, published Oct 24, 2026 at 8:09 PM ET, showed $18.4M in total traded volume.

According to predictionbubbles.net, the October Fed no-change contract was the most heavily traded finance market on its board at the latest refresh. The price reflected a strong market preference for an unchanged-rate outcome, rather than confirmation of a Fed decision.

Volume leads, but does not explain the move

PredictionBubbles ranks its finance markets by total traded volume and separately tracks their absolute probability changes over the previous 24 hours. The $18.4M figure is cumulative trading activity, not a measure of money traded during the latest rise in probability.

The supplied news summary identified no significant new platform headline in the preceding 30 minutes. The material therefore does not establish a fresh news catalyst for the 2.0-point increase.

A periodically refreshed snapshot

According to predictionbubbles.net, its finance board covered 189 open markets: 22 from Kalshi and 167 from Polymarket. Its data refreshes every 15 minutes, while trading on the underlying venues continues between updates.

The site also cautions that related contracts across the two venues may differ in wording, resolution rules and deadlines. Those differences matter when comparing prices: a similar macroeconomic question does not necessarily represent the same settlement outcome.

What it means for prediction markets

• A concentrated expectation: The 94.5% price shows that no change was the strongly favored outcome, but it remains a market-implied probability rather than a settled result.
• Activity and conviction are different measures: The $18.4M total establishes the contract’s volume lead on the tracked finance board; it does not explain the latest price movement.
• Timing and terms matter: The 15-minute refresh cycle can leave displayed prices behind live trading, and cross-venue comparisons require checking contract wording and resolution conditions.