US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026 priced at 28.5% on Polymarket, up 8.0 points, on $669K traded
PredictionBubbles' movers board, on the same Oct. 29, 12:55 UTC crawl, lists the November 30 blockade-end contract among its upward political moves, in a…
A Polymarket contract asking whether the US will announce an end to the Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026 was priced at 28.5%, up 8.0 probability points, with $669K traded, according to the supplied market snapshot. The increase still left the contract below 50%.
According to PredictionBubbles, the contract appeared among upward-moving political markets in its October 29, 12:55 UTC crawl. The supplied movers-page text carries a later refresh time of October 29, 2026, 13:10 UTC, but does not reproduce the contract’s individual listing.
What the move measures
PredictionBubbles ranks changes over a 24-hour window using probability points, rather than relative percentage gains. It refreshes its data every 15 minutes using prices from Polymarket and Kalshi. The reported 8.0-point increase therefore describes a change in pricing, not an 8.0% relative rise.
The board covers 2,000 markets lasting longer than 14 days and excludes markets without a valid 24-hour comparison. Trading volume and liquidity provide context but do not affect the movement rankings, according to PredictionBubbles.
No catalyst established
The supplied material does not identify an official announcement or other news event explaining the blockade-end contract’s rise. It establishes a market repricing—not that the US has announced an end to the blockade.
The $669K traded figure adds activity context, but the supplied contract snapshot does not specify its measurement period or provide order-book depth. Those omissions limit what can be concluded about the trading behind the move.
What it means for prediction markets
- Higher pricing, still below 50%: The contract rose 8.0 probability points to 28.5%, while remaining below an even-chance assessment.
- The announcement is the event being priced: The question concerns a US announcement by November 30, 2026; the supplied material does not include detailed settlement rules.
- Keep the snapshots separate: The contract reference comes from the 12:55 UTC crawl, while the supplied page shows a 13:10 UTC refresh.
- Activity is not an explanation: The $669K traded figure does not establish why prices moved or independently confirm a policy development.
Sources & attribution
- [1]Predictionbubbles (predictionbubbles.net)https://predictionbubbles.net/markets/movers/
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