US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31 at 58% on Polymarket, with volume up to $510K in 24 hours

March 31 outcome priced at 58%

Polymarket traders assigned a 58% probability to the March 31 outcome in a market asking when the US would announce an end to the Iranian blockade, according to polydict.app’s Oct 16, 10:25 AM UTC snapshot. That is a market assessment of a future announcement, not evidence that one has occurred.

The timing market ranked 19th by 24-hour trading volume on the site. The listing showed three additional outcomes but did not provide their prices, limiting comparisons across the available deadlines.

Related contracts measure different milestones

Other Iran-related markets showed substantially different probabilities for distinct events. According to polydict.app, the October 16 outcome in the US-Iran ceasefire-continuation market stood at 99%, with $872K in 24-hour volume. The October 18 outcome in the Israel-Iran ceasefire-continuation market was at 96%, with $655K.

Meanwhile, traders priced a return to normal Strait of Hormuz traffic by October 31 at 1%, with $196K in 24-hour volume. A separate contract on whether the U.S. would invade Iran before 2027 showed 16% for Yes and $264K in volume. Those questions concern different milestones and deadlines, so their prices are not direct substitutes for the blockade-announcement odds.

The blockade market’s listing displayed an end date of Jan 1, 2027, alongside the March 31 outcome label. The supplied snapshot does not explain that calendar relationship or reproduce the resolution criteria. According to polydict.app, the contracts settle under Polymarket’s rules and designated resolution sources.

What it means for prediction markets

• The key signal is 58%, not a confirmed policy change. The snapshot provides no earlier probability with which to establish an odds trend.
• Volume increased, but the readings differ by snapshot. The supplied summary records $345K on Oct. 15, while the headline published Oct 16, 2026 at 6:24 AM ET cites $510K. The polydict.app snapshot shows $534K. Increased turnover alone does not establish the direction of changing expectations.
• Contract wording matters. An announcement ending a blockade, continued ceasefires and normalized shipping traffic are separate resolution events. The March 31 label and Jan 1, 2027 listed end date also require clarification from the contract rules.