UFC 333: Ramazan Temirov vs. Lone'er Kavanagh (Flyweight, Main Card) priced at 0.1% on Polymarket, down 49.5 points, on $427K traded

The Polymarket contract for Ramazan Temirov to beat Lone'er Kavanagh in their UFC 333 flyweight main-card bout was priced at 0.1%, down 49.5 probability points over 24 hours, with $427K traded. According to PredictionBubbles’ movers board, the Temirov win contract was among the largest downward moves in sports.

The listing indicated resolution in about eight hours. The supplied update was published on Oct 24, 2026 at 4:39 PM ET; PredictionBubbles identified its underlying venue-data snapshot as 24 Oct 2026, 20:12 UTC.

A sharp move, without an identified catalyst

The figures describe a substantial reduction in the market-implied chance of a Temirov victory. They do not establish why traders repriced the contract: the supplied material contains no bout-specific reporting explaining the decline or confirming an outcome.

The $427K traded provides context for the move, but the supplied listing does not establish order-book depth. Trading volume and liquidity are distinct considerations when assessing how much weight to place on a price near zero.

How the board measures movement

According to PredictionBubbles, the board draws prices from Polymarket and Kalshi and updates every 15 minutes. Its rankings use the absolute 24-hour change in probability points, rather than relative percentage changes; volume and liquidity do not affect a market’s position.

The board’s stated universe covered 1,969 markets lasting longer than 14 days. It excludes short-lived, same-week fixtures to limit rankings dominated by settlement-related swings, and includes only open contracts with a valid 24-hour comparison. Those filters do not, by themselves, explain this contract’s decline as its listed resolution time approached.

What it means for prediction markets

• The unit matters: the decline was 49.5 probability points, not a 49.5% relative fall.
• Timing limits interpretation: with resolution listed in about eight hours, the move warrants settlement context that the supplied material does not provide.
• Price is not confirmation: the 0.1% reading records market pricing, not a verified result or an explanation for the repricing.
• Volume is only part of the picture: $427K traded adds activity context but does not establish liquidity at the displayed price.