Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide priced at 11.0% on Polymarket, down 17.5 points, on $570K traded
PredictionBubbles' movers board lists the conviction contract among its largest downward moves, in a legal category distinct from the lead. This contract has zero hits…
The Polymarket contract on whether Tyler Robinson will be convicted of homicide was priced at 11.0%, down 17.5 percentage points, with $570K traded, in the supplied Oct 23, 2026 · 11:54 AM ET update. According to PredictionBubbles’ movers board, the contract was among the largest downward moves over the preceding 24 hours.
That pricing describes traders’ assessment of a possible conviction, not a report that Robinson has been convicted. The supplied material provides no court update or explanation for the decline.
How the move is measured
According to PredictionBubbles, the board compares prices from Polymarket and Kalshi over a 24-hour window and refreshes every 15 minutes. The supplied snapshot records venue data collected on 23 Oct 2026, 15:37 UTC.
The ranking measures changes in percentage points rather than relative percentages. It covers 1,998 markets with lifespans longer than 14 days and excludes markets without a valid day-earlier comparison. Trading volume and liquidity provide context but do not determine a contract’s rank.
What the available data leaves open
The $570K traded figure accompanies a substantial repricing, but the supplied material does not establish the contract’s order-book depth or identify what prompted the move. PredictionBubbles notes that price changes can reflect news, trading orders or participants responding to one another; it does not attribute this decline to any particular cause.
The supplied excerpt also omits the Robinson contract’s settlement deadline and detailed resolution rules. Those gaps limit what can be concluded about the legal outcome being priced beyond the stated conviction question.
What it means for prediction markets
- A lower market estimate, not a legal finding: The 11.0% price reflects the contract’s implied probability, while the 17.5-point decline measures its change over 24 hours.
- Volume does not establish the catalyst: The reported $570K traded does not, by itself, explain why the price fell or establish available liquidity.
- Contract terms remain important: Without the settlement deadline and resolution criteria, the price cannot be fully interpreted as a forecast of the underlying legal proceedings.
Sources & attribution
- [1]Predictionbubbles (predictionbubbles.net)https://predictionbubbles.net/markets/movers/
Date & time:
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