Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31 priced at 20.5% on Polymarket, down 4.5 points, on $681K traded

The Polymarket contract on whether Pete Hegseth will be out as Secretary of Defense by December 31 was priced at 20.5%, down 4.5 probability points, with $681K traded, in the Oct 23, 2026 · 12:24 PM ET update.

According to PredictionBubbles, the cabinet-exit contract appeared among the movers board’s declining political markets. The price change indicates a lower market-implied likelihood of an exit by the deadline, not confirmation of any development involving Hegseth’s position.

How the move is measured

PredictionBubbles ranks changes over 24 hours using probability points rather than relative percentage changes. Its board draws prices from Polymarket and Kalshi every 15 minutes; the supplied snapshot was read from the venues on 23 Oct 2026, 16:07 UTC.

The ranking covers 1,988 markets that remain live for longer than 14 days. According to PredictionBubbles, markets without a valid 24-hour comparison are excluded, while volume and liquidity provide context rather than determine ranking positions.

What the data does—and does not—show

The supplied material identifies no announcement, reporting or other catalyst explaining the Hegseth contract’s decline. It therefore supports an account of repricing, rather than a conclusion about why traders changed their assessment.

The $681K traded figure adds activity context, but the supplied headline does not specify its measurement period. It should not be treated as evidence that this amount changed hands during the 24-hour price move, or as a measure of available liquidity.

What it means for prediction markets

• Direction: The 4.5-point decline puts the contract’s implied probability at 20.5%, reflecting reduced pricing of an exit by December 31.
• Evidence limits: No catalyst is established in the supplied material; the move alone does not demonstrate a change in Hegseth’s employment status.
• Market context: Traded volume, liquidity and price movement are distinct measures. The $681K figure does not establish how easily traders could execute orders at the displayed price.