December Fed hike leads market pricing as January odds trail

A quarter-point rate increase at the December 9 FOMC meeting is the favored outcome in an average of Kalshi and Polymarket prices, according to DeFi Rate. The pricing puts an unchanged rate at about 26 percent and a cut at about 3 percent.

December pricing favors tightening

The figures come from DeFi Rate reporting published Nov 3, 2026, at 6:00 AM ET. They describe an average across the two prediction-market platforms, rather than separate probabilities for each venue.

That distinction limits the comparison: the supplied summary identifies a quarter-point hike as the December favorite but does not give its exact probability or the individual Kalshi and Polymarket prices.

January presents a separate question

A hike at the January 27 meeting alone is priced at 26 percent, according to DeFi Rate. That is a different meeting-specific outcome from the December 9 decision.

The January hike price is numerically close to the roughly 26 percent assigned to a December hold. Those similar figures apply to different outcomes and should not be read as interchangeable expectations.

What it means for prediction markets

• December's leading outcome is a quarter-point hike. A hold and a cut are priced at about 26 percent and about 3 percent, respectively.
• The cross-platform average leaves venue differences unclear. The supplied summary does not show how closely Kalshi and Polymarket agree.
• January needs separate interpretation. Its 26 percent hike price alone does not establish the probability of hikes at both meetings.