Iran coup attempt by December 31, 2026 priced at 7.5% on Polymarket, down 3.5 points, on $177K traded

Iran coup contract moves lower

Polymarket’s contract on whether Iran will face a coup attempt by December 31, 2026 was priced at 7.5%, down 3.5 percentage points, with $177K traded, in the supplied Oct 23, 2026 update published at 8:54 AM ET.

The figures indicate a lower market-implied probability, not evidence that a coup attempt has occurred or that conditions in Iran have changed. The supplied material identifies no specific catalyst for the decline.

What the available reporting establishes

According to predictionbubbles.net, its market-movement rankings compare prices over 24 hours and refresh every 15 minutes using data from Polymarket and Kalshi. The supplied page records a venue-data snapshot of 23 Oct 2026, 12:48 UTC, although its excerpt does not display the Iran contract’s individual entry.

The accompanying news summary reports no significant new platform headline in the preceding 30 minutes. It says a news search resurfaced a Pentagon insider-bets memo previously noted in the Oct. 22 2224 edition. Nothing supplied connects that memo to the Iran contract’s repricing.

What it means for prediction markets

• Separate price movement from news: The 3.5-point decline records a change in pricing; the available reporting does not establish why it happened.
• Treat volume as context: The headline reports $177K traded but does not specify its measurement period or provide order-book depth. That limits conclusions about the trading behind the move.
• Keep the outcome precise: The contract concerns a coup attempt by December 31, 2026, not necessarily a successful change of government. Detailed settlement criteria are not included in the supplied material.