The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026 priced at 0.1% on Polymarket, on $628K traded

The Polymarket contract asking whether The Super Mario Galaxy Movie will be the top-grossing movie of 2026 was priced at 0.1%, with $628K traded, in the supplied headline dated Oct 17, 2026, at 1:54 PM ET. That price implies a very low probability of the outcome, rather than a definitive box-office result.

Where the contract sits

According to PredictionBubbles, its culture board aggregates entertainment markets from Kalshi and Polymarket, covering awards, box-office performance, music releases and chart outcomes. The supplied summary places the film contract among the board’s traded culture markets, although the provided page text does not independently display its price or volume.

The board reports 47 open culture markets: 11 from Kalshi and 36 from Polymarket. Its volume-ranked listing measures total trading activity separately from its ranking of absolute probability changes over the last 24 hours.

For context, PredictionBubbles identifies “Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?” as its most-traded culture contract at the last refresh, with $66.5M traded on Polymarket. The culture category therefore spans a broader set of questions than conventional entertainment results alone.

Reading the snapshot

According to PredictionBubbles, its data refreshes every 15 minutes, while trading on the underlying venues continues between updates. The supplied material gives no 24-hour probability change for the Mario contract, so the 0.1% reading does not establish whether sentiment had recently risen, fallen or remained steady.

PredictionBubbles also cautions that related questions across venues can have different wording and resolution rules. The supplied material does not include the film contract’s detailed settlement criteria or a resolution deadline, limiting what can be concluded beyond the reported price and traded volume.

What it means for prediction markets

• A low implied probability, not a settled outcome: The reported 0.1% price reflects market pricing of the film’s chances of leading the 2026 box office.
• Volume is distinct from momentum: The $628K traded measures activity; it does not reveal the direction or size of recent price changes.
• Timing and terms matter: A 15-minute refresh cycle can leave displayed prices behind live trading, and the missing resolution criteria prevent a precise assessment of what qualifies as the top-grossing movie.