Chicago win the Pro Football NFC North Division priced at 19% on Kalshi, up 2 points, on $1.4M traded
PredictionBubbles lists the division-winner contract among the day's upward moves, in a sports markets category distinct from the lead — a contract with zero hits in the…
Chicago’s contract to win the Pro Football NFC North Division was priced at 19% on Kalshi, up 2 probability points, with $1.4M traded, according to PredictionBubbles’ upward-movers listing. The figures were reported on Oct 17, 2026, at 2:39 PM ET.
The move reflects a higher market-implied chance of a Chicago division win over the preceding 24 hours. The supplied material does not identify a team development or other news event behind the change.
How the move is measured
PredictionBubbles compares prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, ordering markets by their absolute 24-hour change in probability points rather than their relative percentage gain. Its supplied snapshot used venue data read on 17 Oct 2026 at 18:10 UTC, with updates every 15 minutes.
The ranking covers 1,968 markets lasting longer than 14 days and excludes same-week fixtures. Only open contracts with a valid day-earlier comparison qualify; the main table displays the top 150 of 381 markets that moved at least one probability point.
Price movement and trading activity
Chicago’s $1.4M in reported trading provides context for the repricing, but volume does not affect its position in the movers ranking. According to PredictionBubbles, trading activity and price changes are separate measures: substantial turnover need not produce a large move, while a thin market can shift sharply.
The supplied Chicago figures do not establish order-book depth or explain what drove traders to revise the price. They document an upward adjustment, not independent confirmation that the team’s prospects have improved.
What it means for prediction markets
- The change is 2 probability points, with the contract now at 19%; it is not a 2% relative increase.
- Volume and liquidity are distinct. The reported $1.4M traded does not, by itself, show how much trading the market could absorb at current prices.
- The catalyst remains unspecified. The listing establishes the direction and size of the repricing, but supplies no Chicago-specific explanation.
Sources & attribution
- [1]Predictionbubbles (predictionbubbles.net)https://predictionbubbles.net/markets/movers/
Date & time:
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