Terminal
Infiniti Feed

Talarico reaches 85 percent in Texas Senate market as voting ends

Polyguana reports James Talarico has climbed to 85 percent in the Texas Senate market against Ken Paxton in its latest live read, up from 73 cents at 7:17 p.m. ET, as polls closed across most of Texas at 8 p.m. ET. Texas remains the most heavily traded single Senate race of the cycle on the board.

James Talarico rose to 85 percent against Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate prediction market, according to Polyguana’s latest live reading, published Nov 3, 2026, at 8:15 PM ET.

The update followed a price of 73 cents at 7:17 p.m. ET. That earlier reading and the latest implied probability show a substantial shift toward Talarico over the intervening period.

Market moves around poll closings

Polls closed across most of Texas at 8 p.m. ET, placing the latest market reading shortly after that milestone. The supplied report does not include vote totals or identify what drove the repricing.

According to Polyguana, Texas remains the board’s most heavily traded individual Senate contest of the cycle. That trading distinction provides context for the market’s prominence, but the reported probability is not an election result.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The timing matters: The 73-cent reading preceded the closure of polls across most of Texas; the 85 percent update came afterward.
  • The move favors Talarico: The latest reading signals stronger market confidence in his chances against Paxton, not a confirmed victory.
  • The evidence is limited: Without vote totals or an explanation for the move, the supplied reporting does not establish whether election returns or other information prompted the shift.
SenateInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    Polyguana
    Publisher
    The publisher did not list a web address.
    Source URL
    The feed did not publish this story's article address.

Full attribution under the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA), 17 U.S.C. § 512: this article is an original report by Infiniti Intelligence that summarizes the reporting of the publishers named above, links to their original work, and reproduces no protected expression beyond brief factual reference and in-line attribution (“according to Polyguana”). All rights in the underlying reporting remain with the publishers listed; nothing here implies endorsement by or affiliation with them. Rights holders may request correction, update or removal through the contact address published at infiniti.w3ai.io.

Related