Tanya Lloyd leads Texas House contract after sharp market swing
Polyguana prices Democrat Tanya Lloyd at 56.3 percent in Texas's 27th district against Republican Michael Cloud at 42 percent, a 38.2 point 24-hour move that ranks among the largest House swings on the live board.
Democrat Tanya Lloyd stood at 56.3 percent in the market for Texas's 27th district, ahead of Republican Michael Cloud at 42 percent, according to Polyguana.
The figures, published Nov 3, 2026 · 11:00 PM ET, put Lloyd ahead in market pricing for a contest that would flip the seat from Cloud if she wins.
A large move on the House board
Polyguana reported a 38.2 point move over 24 hours, placing the contest among the largest House swings on its live board. That makes the scale of the repricing a notable feature alongside Lloyd’s lead.
The supplied summary does not identify what drove the move or provide trading volume, liquidity or election results. The prices therefore describe the market’s assessment at that timestamp, not a confirmed outcome.
What it means for prediction markets
- Lloyd holds the pricing advantage: Her 56.3 percent compares with Cloud’s 42 percent, according to Polyguana.
- The repricing is substantial: The 38.2 point 24-hour move ranks among the largest House swings on the live board.
- Context remains limited: Without volume, liquidity or an identified catalyst, the summary does not establish how robust the move is.
Sources & attribution
- Published
- Source
- Polyguana
- Publisher
- The publisher did not list a web address.
- Source URL
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