Tallon Griekspoor wins priced at 12.0% on Kalshi, down 9.0 points, on $803K traded

The Kalshi market for Tallon Griekspoor to win was priced at 12.0%, down 9.0 probability points, with $803K traded, according to the supplied headline accompanying PredictionBubbles’ movers-board summary. The material does not identify the event or explain what prompted the repricing.

Snapshot timing matters

The summary references an Oct. 29, 18:41 UTC crawl using data read at Oct. 29, 18:13 UTC. It explicitly identifies this as the same crawl used for the 1439 and 1454 editions, rather than a separate update.

The supplied PredictionBubbles page carries a different timestamp: 29 Oct 2026, 18:43 UTC for its venue data. Its extracted text does not include the Griekspoor listing, so it cannot independently confirm the headline’s price, move or traded amount at that later reading.

How the board measures movement

According to PredictionBubbles, its rankings compare market-implied probabilities over 24 hours, using the absolute change in probability points rather than relative percentage changes. The board refreshes every 15 minutes with prices from Polymarket and Kalshi; volume and liquidity provide context but do not determine ranking.

The supplied page describes a universe of 2,002 markets lasting longer than 14 days, with same-week fixtures excluded. It displays the top 150 of 535 markets moving at least one probability point and excludes markets that have resolved or lack a valid 24-hour comparison. Those methodology details do not establish the terms or settlement date of the Griekspoor contract.

What it means for prediction markets

• The reported decline is 9.0 probability points, not 9.0%. It records a lower market-implied chance of a Griekspoor win, not a confirmed sporting outcome.
• $803K traded is activity context, not proof of liquidity. The supplied material does not establish that figure’s measurement period or the available order-book depth.
• The repeated crawl is not a fresh signal. The summary’s shared snapshot should be distinguished from the later timestamp on the supplied page.
• Contract details remain missing. Without the event, settlement rules or a reported catalyst, the move alone cannot explain why traders reduced the price.