Federal Reserve hike rates by 0bps at their December 2026 meeting priced at 23.0% on Kalshi, up 7.0 points, on $727K traded
PredictionBubbles' movers board, on the same crawl, lists the Fed 0bps-hike contract among its upward finance moves, in a finance category distinct from the lead. It has…
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Kalshi’s contract for a 0bps Federal Reserve rate increase at its December 2026 meeting was priced at 23.0%, up 7.0 probability points, with $727K traded, according to PredictionBubbles’ movers listing.
The contract appeared among the board’s upward-moving finance markets. The update was published on Oct 29, 2026 · 3:39 PM ET; the underlying board recorded its venue-price snapshot at 29 Oct 2026, 19:14 UTC.
A shift in pricing, not a policy signal
The 7.0-point increase measures the change in market-implied probability over 24 hours, rather than a relative percentage gain. Despite the advance, the contract’s 23.0% price remained below an even chance.
The supplied material does not identify a catalyst for the repricing or provide the contract’s detailed settlement terms. It therefore supports a report on changing trader expectations, not a conclusion about what prompted the move or what the Federal Reserve will decide.
How the board measures movement
According to PredictionBubbles, the board draws prices from Kalshi and Polymarket every 15 minutes. Its rankings cover 2,001 markets lasting longer than 14 days and order qualifying contracts by the absolute size of their 24-hour probability-point changes. Only open markets with a valid day-old comparison qualify.
Trading volume supplies context but does not determine those rankings. The $727K figure accompanies the Fed contract’s move, but the supplied material does not specify its measurement period or establish the depth of available liquidity.
What it means for prediction markets
Direction and level differ: The 0bps contract gained 7.0 points, while its quoted probability stood at 23.0%.
Volume is not liquidity: The reported $727K traded does not, by itself, show how readily additional orders could be executed.
The snapshot has limits: Without a stated catalyst, settlement rules or prices for alternative outcomes, the move cannot establish a broader distribution of expectations for the December 2026 meeting.