Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31 priced at 35.5% on Polymarket, down 6.0 points, on $1.3M traded

Ceasefire contract moves lower

Polymarket’s contract on whether the Israel–Iran ceasefire continues through December 31 was priced at 35.5%, down 6.0 probability points, with $1.3M traded, according to the supplied market update published Oct 28, 2026, at 8:39 AM ET.

The accompanying summary places the contract among the declining political markets on PredictionBubbles’ movers board and describes the board as unchanged at its Oct. 28, 12:25 UTC read. The supplied PredictionBubbles page carries a later venue-data timestamp of 28 Oct 2026, 12:36 UTC, but its extracted text does not display the ceasefire contract’s individual entry.

What the move establishes

According to PredictionBubbles, its movers rankings measure changes over 24 hours in probability points, rather than relative percentages. The reported 6.0-point decline therefore describes a lower market-implied probability of the ceasefire lasting through December 31—not a 6.0% relative fall.

PredictionBubbles refreshes the board every 15 minutes using prices from Polymarket and Kalshi. The supplied snapshot covers 2,037 markets lasting longer than 14 days; only open contracts with a valid day-earlier comparison qualify for the rankings.

The material provides no specific diplomatic or military development explaining the ceasefire contract’s decline. The $1.3M traded figure supplies activity context, but the supplied contract details do not establish its measurement period or order-book depth. The supported conclusion is a repricing of the outcome, not evidence that the ceasefire itself has changed status.

What it means for prediction markets

• Direction: The 35.5% price reflects reduced market confidence in the ceasefire continuing through December 31.
• Magnitude: The 6.0-point decline is an absolute probability change, the measure PredictionBubbles uses to rank movers.
• Evidence limits: Neither the trading figure nor the price move identifies a catalyst or establishes how much liquidity supported the repricing.
• Snapshot timing: The summary’s 12:25 UTC read and the source page’s 12:36 UTC timestamp should not be treated as independent confirmations of the contract’s quoted price.