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Democratic Senate odds rise as tracked midterm trading hits $1.93 billion

Vantage Predictions reports the average of Kalshi and Polymarket prices put Democrats at 75.9 percent to win the Senate, up from 73.4 percent on Monday afternoon, and 94 percent to win the House, with about 164 million dollars more traded since Monday across the 110 midterm and ballot markets it tracks.

Democrats’ market-implied chance of winning the Senate reached 75.9 percent on Election Day morning, according to Vantage Predictions. The figure averages prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, compared with 73.4 percent on Monday afternoon.

The update, published Nov 3, 2026, at 6:00 AM ET, puts the increase at 2.5 percentage points over that interval.

House pricing remains higher

The same average placed Democrats at 94 percent to win the House, according to Vantage Predictions. The supplied summary does not include an earlier House reading, so it offers no comparable measure of movement in that chamber’s pricing.

Both figures describe prediction-market pricing, rather than election results. They also combine readings from two platforms rather than representing a single exchange’s price.

Trading expands across tracked markets

Trading across the 110 midterm and ballot markets tracked by Vantage Predictions reached $1.93 billion. About $164 million more had been traded since Monday.

That total covers the full tracked group, not just contracts on Senate or House control. The supplied figures do not show how the additional trading was distributed among those markets.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Senate pricing shifted toward Democrats: The two-platform average rose from 73.4 percent to 75.9 percent between Monday afternoon and Election Day morning.
  • The chambers carry different implied probabilities: Democrats’ 94 percent House reading remained above their Senate reading, but no earlier House figure was supplied.
  • Volume has a broader scope than the control odds: The $1.93 billion total and roughly $164 million increase span 110 markets; they cannot be attributed solely to either chamber’s control contracts.
KalshiPolymarketSenateElectionsMidtermsInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

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    Vantage Predictions
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