San Antonio wins priced at 22.0% on Kalshi, down 32 points, on $6.2M traded

San Antonio’s win contract on Kalshi was priced at 22.0%, down 32 probability points, with $6.2M traded, in the supplied Oct 20, 2026 · 11:24 PM ET update. According to the accompanying summary of PredictionBubbles’ movers board, it was the largest daily move across the categories tracked.

The supplied board text explains how those rankings are compiled, but does not include the San Antonio contract’s individual listing. It also provides no opponent, event date or explanation for the decline, leaving the catalyst for the repricing unconfirmed.

What the ranking measures

According to PredictionBubbles, the board compares market-implied probabilities over 24 hours using prices from Polymarket and Kalshi. Its supplied snapshot was read from the venues on 21 Oct 2026, 03:05 UTC, and the data refreshes every 15 minutes.

The ranking covers 2,010 markets with lifespans longer than 14 days. Same-week fixtures are excluded to prevent rapid moves around settlement from dominating the results. Only open contracts with a valid 24-hour price comparison qualify, so the San Antonio description should be understood as the largest move within that screened universe—not necessarily across every contract on either venue.

Trading volume is separate from price movement

PredictionBubbles ranks contracts by the absolute size of their probability-point changes, regardless of direction. Volume and liquidity provide context but do not affect placement. The San Antonio decline therefore represents a 32-point adjustment, not a 32% relative fall.

The $6.2M trading figure adds context to the reported move, but the supplied material does not establish the San Antonio contract’s order-book depth or identify what drove trading. PredictionBubbles distinguishes changes in price from trading activity: a large turnover figure and a sharp probability shift describe different aspects of a market.

What it means for prediction markets

• Scope matters: The largest-mover designation applies to PredictionBubbles’ filtered board, which excludes short-lived fixtures and contracts without a valid daily comparison.
• Price is not an outcome: The reported 22.0% reflects market pricing at the update, rather than a confirmed result.
• The catalyst remains unclear: Neither the contract’s event details nor a reason for its 32-point decline appears in the supplied source excerpt.
• Volume does not establish liquidity: The reported $6.2M traded does not, by itself, show how much buying or selling the market could absorb without another price change.