US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30 priced at 46.0% on Polymarket, up 3.5 points, on $767K traded

Ceasefire contract gains ground

Polymarket’s contract on whether the US–Iran ceasefire continues through November 30 was priced at 46.0%, up 3.5 probability points, with $767K traded, in the supplied update published Oct 20, 2026 · 11:54 PM ET.

According to PredictionBubbles, the contract appeared among upward moves in its political/election category. The increase reflects a stronger market-implied assessment of continuation, although the price remained below 50%.

What the board measures

PredictionBubbles ranks changes over 24 hours using probability-point movements rather than relative percentage gains. Its board draws prices from Polymarket and Kalshi and refreshes every 15 minutes. The supplied page identifies its venue-data snapshot as 21 Oct 2026, 03:35 UTC.

The ranking covers 2,004 markets with lifespans longer than 14 days, excluding short-lived fixtures that can experience large changes as settlement approaches. Only open contracts with a valid 24-hour comparison qualify; trading volume and liquidity provide context but do not affect rank.

The supplied material does not identify a diplomatic development behind the ceasefire contract’s rise or provide its settlement criteria. The $767K trading figure adds context, but it does not establish order-book depth or explain what drove the repricing.

What it means for prediction markets

• Direction and level differ: The 3.5-point gain moved the contract toward continuation, while the 46.0% price still placed it below an even chance.
• Activity is not liquidity: The reported $767K traded should not be treated as a measure of how readily further orders could execute without moving the price.
• The catalyst remains unspecified: The board documents a change in pricing, not evidence that ceasefire conditions themselves have changed.