Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026 priced at 11.5% on Polymarket, up 3 points, on $1.2M traded

Ceasefire odds rise, but remain low

Polymarket’s contract on a Russia–Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026 was priced at 11.5%, up 3 percentage points, with $1.2M traded in the October 20, 2026 update published at 4:24 AM ET. The year-end ceasefire question was among the political markets moving higher.

The increase signals a shift in traders’ pricing, while the 11.5% level still places a ceasefire by the deadline well below an even chance. The supplied material identifies no diplomatic announcement or other specific catalyst for the move.

How the move is measured

According to predictionbubbles.net, its movers board compares market-implied probabilities over 24 hours using prices from Polymarket and Kalshi. It refreshes every 15 minutes; the supplied snapshot records venue data read on 20 Oct 2026, 08:39 UTC.

The board ranks changes by their size in probability points, rather than relative percentage gains. On that basis, the ceasefire contract’s increase is a 3-point repricing—not a 3% relative increase.

PredictionBubbles says trading volume provides context but does not affect the movement ranking. The $1.2M traded figure should therefore be considered separately from the price change; the supplied ceasefire headline does not specify the period covered by that volume.

What it means for prediction markets

• Direction and level tell different stories: The contract moved higher, but its 11.5% price still reflects a low market-implied probability of a ceasefire by December 31, 2026.
• Repricing is not confirmation: The increase alone does not establish progress toward a ceasefire, and the supplied reporting gives no explanation for the move.
• Volume is not liquidity: The $1.2M traded figure provides activity context, but the material does not establish market depth or how much trading accompanied the 3-point increase.