Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026 priced at 4.5% on Polymarket, down 3.0 points, on $588K traded
PredictionBubbles' movers board lists the Lyman territorial-control contract among its downward political moves, in a political/election category distinct from the lead.…
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Polymarket’s contract on whether Russia will capture Lyman by December 31, 2026 was priced at 4.5%, down 3.0 probability points, with $588K traded in the supplied October 27, 2026 update.
According to PredictionBubbles, the Lyman territorial-control contract appeared among declining markets in its political/election category. The listing records a change in traders’ pricing; the supplied material does not identify a battlefield development or other specific catalyst.
How the move is measured
PredictionBubbles ranks moves over 24 hours using probability-point changes rather than relative percentages. Its supplied snapshot drew venue prices on 27 Oct 2026, 16:06 UTC, and the board refreshes every 15 minutes.
The ranking covers 2,005 markets with lifespans longer than 14 days across Polymarket and Kalshi, according to PredictionBubbles. Only open contracts with a valid day-earlier comparison qualify, and volume and liquidity do not affect their position in the rankings.
The $588K trading figure provides context, but the supplied Lyman information does not specify its measurement period or disclose order-book depth. It therefore cannot establish how much trading drove the latest decline or how readily the quoted price could absorb additional orders.
What it means for prediction markets
A lower market estimate: The 4.5% price indicates that traders assigned a low probability to Russia capturing Lyman by December 31, 2026, with that estimate falling over the measured window.
Points, not percent: The reported decline is 3.0 probability points, not a 3.0% relative decrease.
Limited evidence on the cause: The movers listing documents repricing, not an independently verified change in territorial control. The supplied material also does not include the contract’s detailed resolution criteria.