Ignacio Buse wins priced at 31.0% on Kalshi, down 11.0 points, on $1.1M traded
PredictionBubbles' movers board lists the Buse contract among its largest downward moves and its new markets on the move, in a sports markets category distinct from the…
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Ignacio Buse’s win contract on Kalshi was priced at 31.0%, down 11.0 percentage points, with $1.1M traded, as reported in the Oct 27, 2026 · 12:54 PM ET update. According to PredictionBubbles, the contract appeared among both the board’s largest downward moves and its newly opened markets showing price changes.
A substantial downward repricing
The Buse contract sits in PredictionBubbles’ sports category. Its decline measures a change in market-implied probability over 24 hours, rather than a relative percentage loss. The supplied material does not identify the opponent, event, settlement terms or a catalyst for the move.
PredictionBubbles says its movers board draws prices from Kalshi and Polymarket every 15 minutes. The supplied snapshot records venue data collected on 27 Oct 2026, 16:37 UTC.
How the board measures movement
According to PredictionBubbles, the board ranks 1,995 markets lasting longer than 14 days, excluding same-week fixtures. Only open contracts with a valid 24-hour price comparison qualify; contracts that have resolved or lack that baseline are omitted.
The ranking depends on the magnitude of the probability-point change, not trading volume or liquidity. Its new-market grouping covers contracts opened within the last week that have moved at least one probability point. Buse’s appearance in both groups therefore reflects a recently opened contract with a comparatively large repricing, not two separate price signals.
What it means for prediction markets
The signal is a lower market price for a Buse win. The 31.0% reading records traders’ pricing at the reported snapshot, not an established sporting outcome.
Volume and price movement answer different questions. The $1.1M traded provides activity context, but does not establish available liquidity or explain the 11.0-point decline.
The cause remains unspecified. Without event details or supporting reporting, the move cannot reliably be attributed to sporting news or any particular trading behavior.