Republicans win the Senate race in Texas — Ken Paxton priced at 30.0% on Kalshi, down 2.0 points, on $36.1M traded
PredictionBubbles' politics board, fresh on its Oct. 30, 07:40 UTC crawl at 1,011 open markets with $4.91B traded, lists the Paxton Texas Senate contract as the most…
Ken Paxton’s Texas Senate contract on Kalshi was priced at 30.0%, down 2.0 percentage points over 24 hours, with $36.1M traded, according to the supplied market snapshot. Those figures describe traders’ pricing of the contract—not confirmation of a Republican victory in Texas.
Texas pricing in context
PredictionBubbles’ Oct. 30, 07:40 UTC crawl covered 1,011 open politics markets with $4.91B traded, according to the supplied summary. Its politics page aggregates prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, with 229 markets from Kalshi and 782 from Polymarket.
The board separates markets with the largest absolute 24-hour probability changes from those with the highest cumulative trading volume. The supplied summary cuts off before completing its description of the Paxton contract’s ranking, so it does not establish where that contract stood on either measure.
What the snapshot establishes
According to PredictionBubbles, its data refreshes every 15 minutes, while trading on the underlying venues is continuous. The site identifies the Polymarket contract asking whether the U.S. will invade Iran before 2027 as its most-traded politics market at the latest refresh, with $76.0M traded.
The supplied material offers no explanation for Paxton’s decline and does not include the contract’s full wording or settlement criteria. PredictionBubbles also cautions that related questions across venues can carry different wording and resolution rules, limiting direct comparisons.
What it means for prediction markets
- The move is a repricing, not a result: The 30.0% reading and 2.0-point decline show a lower market-implied probability over 24 hours; they do not establish an election outcome.
- Volume and movement measure different things: The $36.1M figure is total traded volume, not the amount traded during the decline or evidence of what caused it.
- Contract details matter: Without the full question and settlement rules, readers cannot safely equate the Paxton contract with a broader Republican-win proposition.
- Timing matters: PredictionBubbles publishes on a 15-minute refresh cycle, so its displayed snapshot need not match a venue’s latest traded price.
Sources & attribution
- [1]Predictionbubbles (predictionbubbles.net)https://predictionbubbles.net/markets/politics/
Date & time:
Full attribution under the DMCA, 17 U.S.C. § 512: an original Infiniti Intelligence report summarizing and linking to the publishers named above. All rights in the underlying reporting remain with them. Rights holders may request correction or removal via the contact address at infiniti.w3ai.io.
Related
- NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31 priced at 52.0% on Polymarket, down 13.0 points, on $1.6M traded
- Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31 priced at 11.5% on Polymarket, up 4.0 points, on $243K traded
- Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by December 31 priced at 6.4% on Polymarket, up 3.2 points, on $126K traded
- There be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting priced at 70.5% on Polymarket, up 4.0 points, on $255K traded
- Conductor (Melty Labs) be acquired before 2027 priced at 79.0% on Polymarket, up 27.5 points, on $219 traded
- Melania Trump visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026 priced at 48.5% on Polymarket, up 25.0 points, on $308 traded