Raymond Smith Jr. reaches 85 percent in active NC-03 market

Raymond Smith Jr. is priced at 85 percent to win the NC-03 House race, with $1.8 million traded on Kalshi, according to CoinStats. The figures appear in an update published Nov 7, 2026, at 5:45 PM ET.

CoinStats places the contract among the most actively traded markets right now across Polymarket and Kalshi. That ranking highlights trading activity, rather than providing independent evidence of the election’s outcome.

A sharp seven-day repricing

DeFi Rate lists the contract among the largest seven-day changes on its board. Smith’s implied probability has risen 39 points from 46 percent to 85 percent.

Greg Murphy is priced at 17 cents, according to DeFi Rate. The supplied material does not specify whether that price and Smith’s 85 percent reading were captured at the same time.

Neither the CoinStats summary nor the DeFi Rate figures identify what drove the shift. The available information establishes a substantial repricing and heavy trading, but offers no underlying election reporting to explain either.

What it means for prediction markets

• A strong market favorite: Smith’s 85 percent price signals a high implied probability, not a confirmed election result.
• A large recent move: The 39-point rise from 46 percent puts the scale of the seven-day reassessment in focus.
• Activity is not corroboration: The $1.8 million traded on Kalshi and CoinStats’ cross-platform ranking show market participation, but do not independently validate the forecast.
• Price comparisons need context: Murphy’s 17-cent reading should not be treated as a synchronized counterpart to Smith’s price without matching timestamps.