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Matched Polymarket and Kalshi questions show uneven pricing across venues

The comparison index lists 2,841 open questions on Polymarket with 6.2 billion dollars of volume on open markets, against 5,772 open questions on Kalshi with 2.0 billion dollars. Among the closest matched outcomes priced on both venues, 14 percent carried gaps of 5 cents or more.

Predictions.io tracked 2,292 validated question matches between Polymarket and Kalshi as of November 5, with an average price difference of 2.8 cents. The summary was published on Nov 5, 2026 at 2:45 AM ET.

Question counts and volume diverge

According to the Predictions.io comparison index, Polymarket had 2,841 open questions and 6.2 billion dollars in volume on open markets.

Kalshi had 5,772 open questions, with 2.0 billion dollars in volume on open markets. That puts Kalshi ahead on the number of open questions, while Polymarket recorded the larger volume figure.

Larger gaps appear within the matched set

Among the closest matched outcomes with prices available on both venues, 14 percent showed differences of 5 cents or more. That measure highlights a subset with wider pricing differences than the 2.8-cent average across validated matches.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The 2,292 validated matches provide a basis for comparing prices across venues, rather than comparing their overall question inventories.
  • The 2.8-cent average does not capture the full variation: 14 percent of the closest matched, jointly priced outcomes had gaps of at least 5 cents.
  • The supplied figures do not establish whether those differences represent executable opportunities; the summary provides no details on fees, available liquidity or settlement terms.
KalshiPolymarketInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    Predictions.iopredictions.io
    Publisher
    https://predictions.io
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