PredictionBubbles live board at 2,126 open markets and $6.08B total volume across Kalshi and Polymarket

PredictionBubbles’ snapshot dated Oct 17, 2026 · 6:09 PM ET put its combined Kalshi and Polymarket board at 2,126 open markets and $6.08B in total traded volume. The accompanying news summary reported no significant new platform headline over the preceding 15 minutes.

The supplied PredictionBubbles markets page, however, lists 2131 open markets across 9 categories. It does not display the $6.08B aggregate in the supplied text. The materials therefore contain different market counts without an explanation, and the headline’s volume figure cannot be independently confirmed from that page excerpt.

Rate expectations across the two venues

According to PredictionBubbles, Polymarket assigned an 86.5% probability to unchanged Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting and 13.5% to a 25 bps increase. Kalshi’s corresponding October 2026 contracts showed 86.0% for a 0bps increase and 14.0% for a 25bps increase.

Elsewhere on Polymarket, the probability of no Fed rate cuts in 2026 stood at 96.9%. The board also showed 15.5% for a U.S. invasion of Iran before 2027 and 2.4% for Nebius Group being acquired before 2027, according to PredictionBubbles.

What the board measures

PredictionBubbles says it refreshes prices from both venues every 15 minutes. Bubble size represents traded volume, while color represents market-implied probability; the embedded view contains the 300 largest markets by volume. Individual market pages provide price histories, and daily probability changes are measured in points rather than percentages.

The site distinguishes cumulative trading volume from liquidity available on the order book and the value of outstanding positions. Its activity-ranking score runs from 0 to 100, emphasizing trading pace relative to each market’s normal activity, followed by probability movement, with a small bonus for approaching deadlines. According to PredictionBubbles, that score identifies unusual activity rather than forecasting an outcome. The service displays venue prices but does not accept wagers, hold funds or offer accounts.

What it means for prediction markets

• Snapshot consistency matters: The headline’s 2,126 markets and the page’s 2131 should not be treated as the same confirmed count. The supplied excerpt also leaves the $6.08B total unverified.
• Related Fed contracts show similar pricing: Both venues strongly favored no October 2026 rate change, although comparing related questions still requires attention to their resolution rules.
• Volume is not current liquidity: Cumulative turnover does not establish how much can be traded at the displayed price.
• Activity is not conviction about an outcome: Neither a high activity score nor a large bubble establishes that a contract is correctly priced or likely to resolve “yes.”