Infiniti Briefing

Andrews contract rises to 18%

The Kalshi contract on Annie Andrews winning the South Carolina Senate race for Democrats stood at 18%, up 3 probability points, with $2.3M traded, according to the supplied market summary. It was among the day’s upward movers—not a report that Democrats had won the election.

The move reflects a higher market-implied probability over the 24-hour comparison period. Despite the increase, the contract continued to price an Andrews victory as the less likely outcome.

How the move is measured

According to predictionbubbles.net, its movers board compares prices from Kalshi and Polymarket over 24 hours and updates every 15 minutes. The supplied snapshot recorded venue data at 17 Oct 2026, 22:12 UTC, ahead of this briefing’s publication on Oct 17, 2026 · 6:24 PM ET.

The board ranks absolute changes in probability points rather than relative percentage changes. Its ranking universe covered 2,004 markets lasting longer than 14 days; the displayed table contained the top 150 of 415 markets that had moved at least one probability point.

Trading volume provides context but does not affect those rankings, according to predictionbubbles.net. The supplied material does not identify a specific catalyst for the Andrews move or provide order-book depth, limiting what can be concluded about the repricing beyond the reported odds, change and turnover.

What it means for prediction markets

• Direction and level are distinct: The 3-point increase signals an upward repricing, while the 18% level still places an Andrews victory below even odds.
• Turnover is not liquidity: The reported $2.3M traded adds activity context, but does not establish how much liquidity was available at the quoted price.
• The snapshot is time-specific: With the board refreshing every 15 minutes, these figures describe the supplied observation rather than a fixed forecast or election result.