October prediction trading sets records as sports contracts dominate activity
Jefferies put October average daily prediction market volume at an all-time high of 4.13 billion dollars, with sports event contracts accounting for about 3 billion dollars a day, or 78 percent of trading. Open interest reached a record 3.27 billion dollars, up 45 percent from September.
Prediction markets reached an estimated record $4.13 billion in average daily trading volume in October, a 55 percent increase from September, according to CardPlayer’s coverage of Jefferies estimates.
Sports account for most trading
Jefferies estimated that sports event contracts generated about $3 billion in daily volume. The firm put sports’ share of prediction-market trading at 78 percent, making those contracts the largest component of the reported activity.
The figures show that October’s record trading pace was heavily concentrated in sports. The supplied estimates do not break down activity across the remaining contract categories.
Open interest reaches a new high
Open interest also set a record, reaching $3.27 billion, up 45 percent from September. That increase accompanied the rise in daily turnover, although open interest grew more slowly than trading volume.
What it means for prediction markets
- Two activity measures reached records: October brought new highs in both average daily volume and open interest, according to the Jefferies estimates cited by CardPlayer.
- Sports dominate the mix: The estimated 78 percent share means aggregate trading figures largely reflect activity in sports contracts, rather than an even distribution across event categories.
- The figures have limits: The supplied data do not identify which platforms or individual contracts drove the increases, or establish whether October’s pace continued into November.
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