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October trading surge sets record for yes-or-no exchanges

NewsBetting reports Jefferies analyst Daniel Fannon put average daily volume across yes-or-no exchanges at 4.13 billion dollars in October, up 55 percent month over month, in the strongest month on record. Rothera, the Robinhood and Susquehanna joint venture, averaged 49 million dollars a day, up 55 percent, for 1.2 percent of industry volume.

Average daily volume across yes-or-no exchanges reached 4.13 billion dollars in October, making it the strongest month on record, according to NewsBetting, citing Jefferies analyst Daniel Fannon.

The figure represented a 55 percent increase month over month. The report, published Nov 4, 2026 at 9:45 AM ET, provides a measure of the prediction-market sector’s expanding trading activity.

Rothera matches the industry’s growth pace

Rothera, the joint venture between Robinhood and Susquehanna, averaged 49 million dollars in daily volume in October, according to the same NewsBetting reporting.

Its volume rose 55 percent, matching the industry’s monthly growth rate. Rothera accounted for 1.2 percent of industry volume—a small share despite participating in the broader increase.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Activity reached a new high: October’s record average daily volume establishes a benchmark for comparing subsequent months.
  • Rothera kept pace: Its 55 percent growth matched the broader market rather than outstripping it.
  • Volume is not a measure of forecasting quality: The supplied figures describe trading activity, not whether market probabilities became more accurate.
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Sources & attribution

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    NewsBetting
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  2. Source 2
    Jefferies data via NewsBetting
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