Predict.fun FDV above $1B after launch priced at 36.3%
Down 6.5 points on $566K traded on Polymarket.
Polymarket traders priced a 36.3% chance that Predict.fun’s fully diluted valuation (FDV) would exceed $1B one day after launch, down 6.5 probability points over 24 hours, with $566K traded. According to PredictionBubbles, the contract appeared among the day’s declining crypto markets.
A crypto-category move, not the overall lead
PredictionBubbles identified the Predict.fun contract as the crypto category’s biggest mover. That placement was separate from the board’s lead market, which asked whether Samuel Alito would announce his retirement by June 30, 2027.
The board’s venue-price snapshot was dated 18 Oct 2026, 12:07 UTC. PredictionBubbles updates the rankings every 15 minutes using prices from Polymarket and Kalshi, measuring changes over a 24-hour window.
What the ranking captures
According to PredictionBubbles, the board ranks absolute changes in implied probability, expressed in points rather than relative percentages. Trading volume and liquidity provide context but do not affect a contract’s position.
The ranking covered 2,025 markets lasting longer than 14 days, excluding same-week fixtures to limit moves driven by imminent settlement. Only open contracts with a valid 24-hour comparison qualified. The supplied material does not identify a specific development behind Predict.fun’s decline or provide further details about the contract’s settlement rules.
What it means for prediction markets
- The change reflects lower expectations: The 6.5-point decline records a repricing of the $1B threshold, not evidence that the eventual valuation has already been determined.
- The timing condition matters: The question concerns FDV one day after launch, rather than whether Predict.fun exceeds $1B at any point.
- Volume and movement answer different questions: The $566K traded adds activity context, but does not by itself establish market depth or explain the price change.
- Category leadership has limits: Predict.fun’s crypto-category placement should not be read as the largest move across the entire board.
Sources & attribution
- [1]Predictionbubbles (predictionbubbles.net)https://predictionbubbles.net/markets/movers/
Date & time:
Full attribution under the DMCA, 17 U.S.C. § 512: an original Infiniti Intelligence report summarizing and linking to the publishers named above. All rights in the underlying reporting remain with them. Rights holders may request correction or removal via the contact address at infiniti.w3ai.io.
Related
- GTA6 be released by Dec 31, 2026 priced at 97% on Kalshi, up 2 points, on $944K traded
- Patrick Mahomes win the MVP priced at 8% on Kalshi, down 3 points, on $1.3M traded
- Infiniti Briefing
- Hull City wins priced at 1% on Kalshi, down 20 points, on $715K traded
- Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027 priced at 15.5% on Polymarket, up 4 points, on $123K traded
- Infiniti Briefing