Hull City wins priced at 1% on Kalshi, down 20 points, on $715K traded

Hull City’s win contract on Kalshi was priced at 1%, down 20 probability points over 24 hours, with $715K traded, according to the supplied market update. PredictionBubbles listed the contract among the day’s largest declines in its sports category.

A sharp fall in implied probability

The move reflects a substantial reduction in the probability traders assigned to the contract’s outcome. It is a decline of 20 percentage points, not a 20% relative decrease—a distinction central to how PredictionBubbles compares price changes across markets.

The supplied material does not identify the competition, settlement deadline or news behind the Hull City repricing. It also does not specify the measurement period for the reported $715K in trading, limiting what that figure establishes about activity during the decline.

How the ranking works

According to PredictionBubbles, the board used venue prices read on 18 Oct 2026, 12:37 UTC, and refreshes every 15 minutes. Its ranking covered 2,011 markets lasting longer than 14 days, excluding same-week fixtures. Markets are ordered by the absolute size of their 24-hour probability-point change; volume and liquidity provide context but do not affect their position.

What it means for prediction markets

• The price is a market estimate, not a result. A 1% reading indicates a low implied probability, not that the Hull City outcome has been settled.
• Trading volume does not establish liquidity. The reported $715K does not, by itself, show order-book depth or explain what drove the decline.
• Contract details remain essential. Without the underlying event and settlement terms, the move cannot reliably be connected to a specific sporting development.
• The ranking has a defined scope. Hull City’s placement is within PredictionBubbles’ eligible longer-duration markets, rather than every sports contract available.