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Texas Senate Democratic bets draw $1.9 million in large Polymarket trades

Rivo reports large-trade money on Polymarket backed the Democrats in the Texas Senate race with 1.9 million dollars across 185 large trades in the 24 hours to its November 4, 2:52 a.m. ET update. Democratic Senate control drew 3.3 million dollars across 279 large trades over the same window, second only to Democratic House control.

Large-trade activity on Polymarket favored Democrats in the Texas Senate race, with 1.9 million dollars recorded across 185 large trades, according to Rivo.

The figures cover the 24 hours ending at Rivo’s November 4, 2:52 a.m. ET update. The report was published on Nov 4, 2026, at 4:45 AM ET.

Senate control attracts broader activity

Over the same window, Democratic Senate control attracted 3.3 million dollars across 279 large trades, according to Rivo. That put it second only to Democratic House control.

The Texas figures identify a state-level focus for large trades backing Democrats, alongside activity in the broader Senate-control market. The supplied summary does not include contract prices, changes in implied probabilities or a definition of a large trade.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The Texas Senate figures show the scale and direction of reported large-trade activity, but do not establish whether Democratic win probabilities rose during the window.
  • Democratic Senate control drew more large-trade dollars and transactions than the Texas race, while Democratic House control ranked above it.
  • The 185 Texas trades should not be read as 185 distinct traders: the summary provides no count of individual participants.
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Sources & attribution

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    Rivo
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